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BARRY BRILL: 'Greenhouse Theory’ is Threatened by the Confounding 2023 Warmth

In March 2023, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic began to shoot up.

 

By June the extent of sea ice around Antarctica was by far the lowest on record. Based on the 30-year midwinter trend, a patch of sea-ice six times larger than New Zealand was suddenly missing.

 

At that time, there was no El Niño. There had been nothing unusual in the slow build-up of greenhouse gas emissions

 

For the next nine months mean land and sea surface temperatures overshot previous records each month by approximately 0.2°C – a massive margin, that is roughly equivalent to 20 years of normal warming. The global heat build-up continued and, by year’s end, 2023 turned out to be the warmest year in possibly the past 100,000 years.

 

This phenomenon has left climate scientists utterly flummoxed.

 

Dr Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute and probably the world’s best-known climatologist, has authored an important Nature article under the heading:

 

“Climate models can’t explain 2023’s huge heat anomaly — we could be in uncharted territory"

 

Dr Schmidt observes: 

 

 “It’s humbling and a bit worrying to admit that no year has confounded climate scientists’ predictive capabilities like 2023 has.

 

Prevalent global conditions one year ago would have suggested that a spell of record-setting warmth was unlikely. The Pacific Ocean was just coming out of a 3-year period of La Niña cooling. Drawing on precedents when similar conditions prevailed, several climate scientists including me put the odds of 2023 turning out to be a record year at just one in five (ie 80% unlikely).

 

El Niño - the inverse of La Niña - causes the eastern tropical Pacific to warm up. But El Niño did not arrive until the second half of the year and the current spell is milder than similar events in 1997-98 and 2015-16.

 

So, what might have caused this heat spike? Atmospheric greenhouse gas levels have continued to rise, but the extra load since 2022 can account for extra warming of only about 0.02°C" [less than 3% of the actual 2023 warming].

 

The author goes on to discuss the January 2022 Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha’apai eruption, the most explosive volcano the world has seen since Krakatoa in 1886. That event sent thousands of tons of sea water into the stratosphere increasing the water vapour content of the global atmosphere by 10-15%. And we know that water vapour is the greatest of all greenhouse gases.

 

Somewhat surprisingly, Schmidt discounts this cause, citing a September 2023 paper which theorises that Hunga Tonga’s warming impacts could have been fully offset by its cooling impacts.

 

Another possibility is the new environmental regulations requiring the shipping industry to reduce the sulphur content of its hydrocarbon fuels. But preliminary estimates put the impact of this change at only a few hundredths of a degree.

 

As compiler of the NASA GISS temperature record – and successor to Dr James Hansen, “the father of global warming” – Gavin Schmidt is arguably the world’s most authoritative spokesperson for the orthodox Enhanced Greenhouse Theory that is relied upon by climate modellers throughout the world.

 

It is a matter of huge consequence that Schmidt fears the 2023 figures might have disproved the predictive capacity of climate models: 

 

“The heat spike greatly exceeds all the predictions made by statistical climate models that rely upon past observations.

 

In general the 2023 temperature anomaly has come out of the blue, revealing an unprecedented knowledge gap perhaps for the first time since about 40 years ago, when satellite data began offering climate modellers an unparalleled, real-time view of Earth’s climate system.

 

If the anomaly does not stabilise by August – a reasonable expectation based on previous El Niño events – then the world will be in uncharted territory.

 

It could imply that a warming planet is already fundamentally altering how the climate system operates, much sooner than scientists had anticipated. It could also mean that statistical inferences based on past events are less reliable than we thought, adding more uncertainty to seasonal predictions of droughts and rainfall patterns.”

 

Dr Schmidt concludes by facing up to the implication that this 2023 heat spike is simply incompatible with the orthodoxy that has been pushed by the UN for over 30 years:

 

Much of the world’s climate is driven by intricate long-distance links – known as teleconnections – fuelled by sea and atmospheric currents. If their behaviour is in flux or markedly diverging from previous observations, we need to know about such changes in real time.

 

We need answers for why 2023 turned out to be the warmest year in possibly the last 100,000 years. And we need them quickly.” 

 

As Benjamin Franklin is quoted as saying: “One of the great tragedies of life is the murder of a beautiful theory by a gang of ugly facts.”



Barry Brill OBE JP LL.M(Hons) M.ComLaw is a former MP and Minister of Energy, Petrocorp director, and chair of the Gas Council, Power NZ, ESANZ, and EMCO. He is presently the Chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition.

 

 

2,401 views124 comments

124 Comments


I worked most of my life outdoors and since quitting farming have never taken any notice of the weather forecast. Continual disappointment at the incorrect weather bureau has lead me to have a theory about the weather. The rain in Spain falls mainly on the plain! That's probably not true either?

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Now that 's weird.

When Jones Boy said : " all the other science deniers and conspiracy theorists that inhabit this platform." , I was quite certain that he was talking about Otway , Arlidge and Hyndman.


And now this from Otway :"Jonesboy, John Hyndman and David Arlidge, you are the oasis of sanity . . . ."


Did I get that completely wrong?

And if I did get it wrong , who on earth was Jones talking about ?

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winder44
winder44
2 hours ago
Replying to

I have read items from two of the names mentioned. I think Peter Otway has come in from the cold, and John Hyndman seem to stir a lot of negative responses on the internet. I've not seen any relevant papers or items by David Arlidge, apart from BB&H.

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winder44
winder44
18 hours ago

In 1951 i saw my first sighting of a weather phenomenon. A classic example of ball lightning. It sparked my interest in weather. From then on I learned so much. I studied weather forcasts, cloud structure, and read as many books that I could find. I found Popular Science magazines a great source of information in those times. living on a farm one learned much more about weather, climate and seasonal change because in did affect farm production. and the more I learned, the more I wanted to know, how everything worked. I turned to meteorology as a fascinating hobby. As I grew older I amassed a huge amount of information on how the World atmosphere functioned. In 1960 met…

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winder44
winder44
4 hours ago
Replying to

Correct. That is why it is called Science. Seek and discover.

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Peter Otway
Peter Otway
a day ago

Jonesboy, John Hyndman and David Arlidge, you are the oasis of sanity in a desert swarming with climate change conspiracy theorists, so ignorant and arrogant that even when they come face to face with a black wall they proclaim to the world that it’s white!


Dr Schmidt’s paper is truly alarming in pointing out that, for the first time in 40 years, the climate modellers have been blindsided by a year of exceptional unanticipated heat. The climate appears to have passed a tipping point they hadn’t seen coming, causing a cascade of adverse feedbacks which have made anthropogenic climate change, following the track so accurately predicted 40 years ago, so much more serious. The world’s climate is now off the…

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mike.lowe
mike.lowe
4 hours ago
Replying to

Don't blame me. We're NOT related!

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lynnsam112
lynnsam112
a day ago

the great Benjamin Franklin had infinite wisdom that is a very rare commodity these days.....


Follow the money and all WILL be revealed, whether its climate change, vax, pandemic, cancel culture, New World Order.......its ALL ABOUT THE MONEY!!!

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