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DON BRASH: WHY ON EARTH WOULD WE JOIN AUKUS, IN ANY FORM?

In recent weeks, there has been increasing talk about New Zealand’s joining the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) alliance, perhaps not the full alliance because that involves nuclear-powered submarines but rather Pillar II of the alliance, to demonstrate our support for our traditional allies.  A few days ago, Winston Peters, as Foreign Affairs Minister, gave a speech strongly implying that we should become more closely aligned to our traditional allies, and Christopher Luxon, in Australia this week, made it clear that we would need to look closely at becoming more closely associated with AUKUS.

 

But it is entirely unclear why either man should think it is in New Zealand’s interests to line up militarily with the United States against China, a country which is already by far our largest trading partner.  We have a Free Trade Agreement with China, and have had since 2008, but have to date been unable to achieve a similar agreement with the United States.  The Chinese economy is already larger than the US economy, and given China’s population is four times that of the US, that disparity in economic size will almost certainly continue to grow.  In short, China is hugely important to New Zealand economically and that importance will grow.

 

It is sometimes argued that we should be closely allied to the United States, by strong implication against China, because the former is a democracy and the latter is not.  But the rivalry between the US and China has almost nothing to do with democracy.  The US is, and has been, allied with lots of countries which are not democracies – think Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and now Vietnam – and the US itself is classified by The Economist as a “flawed democracy”.

 

Rather what this is about is a conventional struggle between an established Power and a rising Power.  Graham Allison, Harvard University History professor, described it well in his 2017 book Destined for War: Can the United States and China escape Thucydides’ Trap?.  He argued that war between an established Power and a rising Power was, if not inevitable, then nearly so.  He looked back over the last 500 years and found 16 cases where an established Power was challenged by a rising Power.  In 12 of those 16 cases, war was the result.  The US is now unquestionably the established Power – unchallenged for nearly 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, but now challenged by China.

 

Unsurprisingly, the US seeks to maintain its dominance.  Since President Monroe pronounced the so-called Monroe doctrine in 1823, the US has demanded the right to be the dominant Power throughout the Western Hemisphere, and woe betide any outside Power which tried to butt in.  President Kennedy had been willing to risk nuclear war with the Soviet Union in 1962 when the latter placed nuclear-armed missiles in Cuba.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US pushed NATO eastwards towards the Russian border.  And in Asia, the US seeks to preserve its absolute dominance through military alliances with South Korea, Japan, Guam, the Philippines and Australia.  It asserts its right to sail naval vessels up and down China’s coast in a way which it would not tolerate were Chinese naval vessels to sail up and down the western seaboard of the US.  It supplies weapons to Taiwan despite having recognized that Taiwan is part of China since 1979.

 

Of course, the US is free to do what it likes in terms of asserting its military dominance, in Europe, Asia, or anywhere else.  But it is entirely unclear why we should risk jeopardizing our relationship with our largest trading partner for the sake of maintaining US hegemony in Asia.

 

There is absolutely no evidence that China threatens New Zealand militarily.  Indeed, there is no evidence that China seeks territorial expansion at all beyond the limited case of Taiwan.  Unlike virtually all of the European Powers, China was never an expansionist military power, and that no doubt explains why it fell victim to several European Powers in the 19th century, starting with the Opium Wars in 1839-42.  But having been humiliated by European Powers in the 19th century, and by Japan in the 20th century, it clearly intends to resist being humiliated by the US in the 21st century.

 

We would also be wise to recall that over at least the last half century, US military adventures have been disasters, both for the US and for the countries directly involved. 

 

The Vietnam War cost some 60,000 US military deaths and an estimated 3.5 million Vietnamese casualties, more than half of them civilians.  And Vietnam is now an American ally, or at least no longer an enemy.  The Iraq war was on a smaller scale in terms of loss of life, but hardly a success in any dimension, now with an unstable government under the malign influence of Iran.  The military occupation of Afghanistan was very costly for the US and its allies, was even more costly in terms of loss of life for the Afghans, and following US withdrawal has left Afghanistan in a total mess. 

 

At this point, our Prime Minister describes Australia as our only ally.  But that should surely not imply that, just because some Australians want to buy into America’s desire to remain the dominant Power in East Asia, we should buy into that nonsense also.  (Not all Australians are enthusiastic about AUKUS – former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating describes AUKUS as the worst deal done by any Australian Government in the last century.)

 

In fact, we have absolutely no need for a military alliance with anybody, especially if that ties us to the AUKUS deal.  We do need to maintain some military (and especially naval) capacity to ensure our very extensive economic zone is free from those who might plunder our fish resources.  But as Bob Jones argued in the context of his leadership of the New Zealand Party in 1984, we probably don’t need to waste many scarce resources on defence at all – Fiji is not about to attack us.

 

Don Brash

21 December 2023


This article was first published at the NZ Herald

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273 comentários


Membro desconhecido
08 de jan.

She's harsh old world. Bottom line - you pay ya money and you make ya choice.

Diplomacy notwithstanding, if I were the US I would be pissed off if some little snot of a country, smaller than the State of Colorado, tucked away in glorious isolation, massaging their holier-than-thou values, wanted to trade with me goods I can produce just as well, and in abundance then turn around and not make any effort to join my defensive alliances. Raised middle finger stuff in my book.

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Membro desconhecido
29 de dez. de 2023

Some astute observations Dr. Brash. Our status within the US as a very good friend has come about in part because we screwed up with them in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. I came close to experiencing an all expense paid visit to Vietnam when the then US President [ all the way with LBJ ] visited NZ to persuade us to introduce the draft/conscription. I visited as a tourist several years back and found the country functioning well under communism, its citizens welcoming and evidently content. What we refer to as the Vietnam war, they refer to as the American invasion? I found it difficult to understand any achievement accrued by the wastage of lives and resources in such a…

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Membro desconhecido
29 de dez. de 2023

The Economist calls the US a flawed democracy? Really? Who, in the Economist says such a thing? How do they justfy such blather? What the depth of reasoning here and why remind us of it in the first place?

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Membro desconhecido
29 de dez. de 2023
Respondendo a

Bruce, if as you say even the Economist is honest enough to admit that the U$ is a "flawed democracy" then chalk that one up, even if it is an outrageous understatement. IMO it is totally farcical to even begin to suggest that is a functional democracy - personally, I would define it as a particularly obscene blend of a plutocratic bankism on steroids that has morphed into the most extreme example of reverse socialism in the history of our species. This is a 'democracy' that yields the very best politicians that money can buy The scene was set in 1913 when the 'Creature from Jekyll Island' was spawned - the wreck we see now is a legacy of 110 yea…

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Membro desconhecido
28 de dez. de 2023

FORGET ABOUT AUKUS - NZ NEEDS TO JOIN BRICS+ INSTEAD - there fixed. An explanation of the key acronyms... BRICS - formed in 2006 with the first letters of the original 5 member countries of this trade/security/cooperative initiative - Brazil/Russia/India/China/South Africa - I use the BRICS+ designation now as the membership is growing so quickly it is changing almost by the month - from the current BRIC+11 , to in 1/1/2024 BRICS+16, and then possibly BRICS+49 by the middle of 2024, and then onto BRICS+150 or more by sometime in 2025. To my knowledge NZ has not shown even remote interest in joining this initiative - indeed we seem to have gone to great lengths to pretend that it doesn't even exist! BR…


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Membro desconhecido
09 de jan.
Respondendo a

Like Hamas, you chaps seem to have built yourselves a massive rabbit warren.

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Membro desconhecido
27 de dez. de 2023

Nothing to fear from China, Don? As ignorant as promoting "Gays for Hamas". The alliance is AUKUS. NZ should be supporting it.

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Membro desconhecido
30 de dez. de 2023
Respondendo a

There is ZERO evidence in all of history of China expanding territorially. They have regularly fought to protect their traditional frontiers but have never gone beyond them They have been described as "hopelessly peace-loving" to the degree that they have made themselves victims for centuries. Neither do they believe in regime change or interfering in other countries' affairs. This is enshrined in their Confucionist roots and is part of their very DNA. The principle of preserving state sovereignty is absolute in their thinking and they see this as the right of all countries. Perhaps this documentary might help you realise what China has had to endure over the millennia and precisely why they present no more of a threat now than a…

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