LINDSAY MITCHELL: Benefit Data Update for December 2025

This post begins with a message from the Ministry of Social Development:

"Unfortunately, because of further system issues we will not be able to publish the full December monthly and quarterly data and benefit factsheets on 5 February. We apologise for the delay.

However, we can provide the high-level numbers as at the end of December 2025, including number of people on working age benefits, Jobseeker Support, Jobseeker Support – Work Ready and Jobseeker Support – Health Condition or Disability. These high-level numbers have not been affected by the system issues we are currently experiencing.

The high-level data as at the end of December 2025 is:

• There were 427,236 people (or 13.2% of the working-age population) on a main benefit.

• There were 223,512 people (or 6.9% of the working-age population) on a Jobseeker Support (JS) benefit.

  This includes 124,875 people on Jobseeker – Work Ready and 98,637 people on Jobseeker – Health Condition or Disability.

• There were 7,104 people on a Jobseeker Support – Student Hardship benefit.

• There were 19,893 people who exited a main benefit into work in the quarter ending December 2025.

• There were 17,757 people who exited JS into work in the quarter ending December 2025.

We will provide an update on timing as soon as it is available. This will also delay data releases for the January and February monthly reports. We will provide updates once these release dates have been confirmed."

Blaming "system issues" MSD has provided only partial data and made no further effort to put any context around that data. Normally they would simultaneously report on monthly and annual change in terms of percentages.

So let me:

Compared to December 2024 the total number of people on a main benefit has risen by 4.3%

The percentage of the working-age population on a main benefit rose from 12.6 to 13.2% over the same period.

The number of people on a Jobseeker Support (JS) benefit rose by 4.8%, but the largest rise was amongst those on Jobseeker - Health Condition or Disability, which climbed by 6.2%.

The number of people on a Jobseeker Support – Student Hardship benefit is up 17% on December 2024.

On a positive note, the number of people who exited a main benefit into work in the December 2025 quarter is up 2.3% on the December 2024 quarter.

However, for net numbers to rise the number of benefit grants must exceed cancels. No data was provided about grants.

And while no information is provided by the two other main benefits - Sole Parent Support (formerly DPB) and Supported Living Payment (formerly Invalid benefit) - the following can be deduced.

The balance of main benefit recipients (those not on Jobseeker Support (JS) benefit or Jobseeker Support – Student Hardship benefit) is also up by 3.3 percent on December 2024.

The question that arises is, why couldn't/didn't MSD issue this information?

This is just another example of a slack public service agency doing a half-arsed job. They appear to want to paint themselves (and the Minister by implication) in a better light than is actually the case. That's not neutrality.

Lindsay Mitchell blogs here