LINDSAY MITCHELL: Wellington takes a hammering (though it's not evident from MSD's calculations)
- Administrator
- Sep 11, 2024
- 2 min read
My blog posts often result from a question popping into my head.
In this case, given all the gloom and doom around public servant lay-offs in the capital, I wondered, "How big is the growth in Jobseeker benefit receipt in the Wellington region and how does it compare to other regions?"
To answer this I accessed the latest Jobseeker Support data at MSD. Their chart calculates the percentage of the working-age population (aged 18-64) receiving Jobseeker Support in each region and compares Sept 1, 2023 to Aug 30, 2024:
That's interesting, I thought. The year-on-year growth (final column) is highest in Auckland, Central and Waikato. Comparatively, Wellington isn't faring that badly.
But hang on. To get a reliable percentage, a reliable fraction is required. The denominator (middle column) is the 'Estimated 18-64 resident NZ population'.
Note that the chart purportedly uses June 2023 for both calculations - 'Reported week' and 'Same week last year.'
Yet Wellington and Central have changed population numbers - Wellington's increased while Central's decreased. So the column headings are at least partially incorrect.
The official published numbers are totally unreliable.
To answer my question, I can however set up my own graph showing absolute numbers on Jobseeker Support by region, and the percentage change from base, year-on-year. At 27 percent annual growth, much higher than any other region, Wellington does not look pretty. But neither does Auckland, in terms of absolute growth:
Still, we have been in much tougher times. In June 1993 for instance, 200,000 people were reliant on the equivalent benefit but in a population around two million lighter.
That isn’t much consolation to those losing their jobs today but let’s hope that the unavoidable correction to Labour’s six years of over-cooking the economy with borrowed money doesn’t come with too much more pain.
Lindsay Mitchell blogs here
I can think of reasons why that second set of numbers in the second grouped column of stats might be significant, but who really knows until it's accuracy and intent is clarified. What it does prima facie indicate that one or more public servants have erred and/or are not doing the job they are paid for, which surely is to produce statistical data that is meaningful and accurate, as opposed to unreliable and contradictory.
The real issue is whether or not we are receiving proper value for the costs of employing so many bureaucrats and civil servants. By "we" I mean the productive, working, wage and salary earners whose daily efforts provide the money that the people in government spend and also have to service and eventually repay what they borrow.
Business is most accurately defined as transactions between willing buyers and sellers of desired goods and services.
Most people sell their time and labour in return for the income they need to live on. These productive working people are also the main consumers of the goods and services that are provided and purchased. Government bureaucrats and employees are not required to provide desired or valued goods…
Not surprising with public service bloat being reduced somewhat. Which at some point will no doubt also be reflected in knock-on effects on other businesses. However, we ain't seen nothing yet. If government makes use of it properly we should also expect AI to replace very large numbers of public service jobs over the next few years, to the extent that one wonders what Wellington is going to be left with to do for a living.
One thing I believe is happening is a lot of Wellington's public servants who have been laid off used to commute from the Wairarapa and Kapiti/Horowhenua. They're now snapping up the local low skill casual jobs which is better than the dole but only just. I have a Masterton relative in his 50s who will probably apply for the unemployment benefit next week. The MSD stats show squat, but let's see what happens in three months.