RICHARD PREBBLE: A Year Is an Eternity in Politics — Luxon Knows It, Trump Fears It

If a week is a long time in politics, a year is an eternity. Both Prime Minister Luxon and President Trump must hope so — though for one of them, time may already have run out.

In New Zealand, the National-led coalition is somehow trailing Labour in the polls on economic management. Labour took office with a wonderful set of books, inflation under control, and the economy growing. They left behind deficits, debt, inflation, and a recession. Yet today Labour leads on the very issue they mismanaged. If the coalition cannot reverse that number, it signals defeat.

But how reliable are polls a year out? Not very. Voters are not thinking about politics. I have gone back through the record. A year out, polls are no more accurate than tossing a coin. In the United States, the same story.

And yet we can still make some strong predictions.

In New Zealand, affordability will decide the election, as it always does. The Reserve Bank has determined the last two elections and will determine the next. If mortgage rates fall far enough and fast enough, National wins. If they don’t, Labour wins.

In the United States, however, we can say something more dramatic: President Trump is now a lame-duck president, and things are likely to get much worse for him.

This week delivered two defeats. First, the Republican-controlled House voted overwhelmingly to release the Epstein files. Who seriously believes Trump fought to stop the release because “there is nothing there”?

The second defeat was far more important. A federal appeals court struck down the Texas Republican gerrymander that gifted the GOP five extra House seats. There will be an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, but candidates must file by 8 December. It is possible but extremely difficult to overturn the ruling in time.

Meanwhile California has responded with its own map gifting Democrats additional seats. That too is being challenged, but courts are more hesitant to overturn a voter referendum than a partisan legislature.

The net effect is that, before any national swing, control of the House is close to even.

And the swing is coming.

Only once since the Civil War has the president’s party gained House seats in the final midterm of a presidency. Since World War Two, the president’s party has lost on average 26 House seats at the midterms. Today Democrats need only a net gain of four to take control.

Presidential approval offers a guide. In 1958, even with Eisenhower’s popularity, Republicans lost 48 House seats. Today just 38 percent of Americans approve of President Trump. With those numbers, even a modest midterm swing becomes a wipe-out.

But the real bloodbath will be in the Senate.

When the Founding Fathers gave every state — regardless of population — two senators, they created a structural advantage for Republicans. Wyoming equals California, rural states equal metropolitan ones. For decades that imbalance has saved the GOP.

Not in 2026.

Republicans must defend twenty Senate seats. Only around fifteen are safe. That leaves five exposed before a single vote swings, with just two or three genuine Republican battlegrounds. Democrats defend only thirteen seats, most in deep-blue states, with perhaps two contests truly competitive.

And that is before the off-year swing. Eisenhower’s Republicans lost 13 Senate seats. Reagan’s Republicans lost nine. With Trump’s historically low approval, even some “safe” Republican seats could fall.

The betting market, usually more accurate than the public opinion polls have a democratic majority as odds on favourite.

Then comes the case that may define the Trump presidency: the Supreme Court challenge to whether the “Trump tariffs” are constitutional. I am not an expert on American law but The U.S. Constitution clearly gives Congress the power to levy taxes.

The administration’s argument that tariffs are not a tax is extraordinary. While presidents can impose some tariffs legally, if the cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy is struck down as unconstitutional, it will fatally weaken his presidency.

A year is a long time in politics — but Luxon’s prospects look a good deal stronger than Trump’s.

Real GDP, the AI site tracking GDP and inflation in real time, says the OCR is half a percent higher than it should be. Next week the Reserve Bank will make its decision on the OCR. If the bank follows its familiar pattern, then interest rates will be adjusted too little, too late.

Do not feel sorry for the finance minister or the Prime Minister. They made the decision — against this columnist’s advice — to leave Labour’s appointees in place.

They, and the country, will have to live with the consequences.

The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004.